Winner takes it both: How Lok Sabha results directly impact Maharashtra assembly polls
By October 24, when results of the Maharashtra assembly elections will be announced, Devendra Fadnavis will become the first chief minister of the state in nearly 50 years to complete a full five-year tenure. The last time this happened in Maharashtra was when Vasantrao Naik was its chief minister.
Right now, the poll bugle in Maharashtra has been sounded, the Election Commission of India has announced polling dates, and the campaign is in full swing. The primary players in the fray are the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Shiv Sena, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
In other words, this is an electoral battle of two alliances — the BJP and Shiv Sena on one hand, and the Congress and NCP on the other. For much of the last 20 years, Maharashtra’s politics has revolved around these two alliances, with both sides having enjoyed power at least once.
But unlike most elections in the past, the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections present new challenges for the two alliances, and specifically, for each of the four major parties.
These elections are being held just five months after the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, which delivered a historic mandate that saw the principal ruling party (the BJP) not only returning to power with a significant majority, but also improving its vote share and seats at the national level.
State elections in Maharashtra have generally been held in the same year as the Lok Sabha elections. Hence, the impact of Lok Sabha election results on the state’s elections can’t be brushed aside.
Analysis of Lok Sabha and assembly election results since 1990 shows that the Lok Sabha elections by and large set the tone and tempo for Maharashtra assembly elections. The data analysis shows that voting pattern in one is closely related to the other.